LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For more on President Trump's efforts to maintain a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the increasingly tense relationship between him and Israel's prime minister, we turn to David Schenker. He served as an assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the First Trump administration. He's now a senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
DAVID SCHENKER: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: How would you describe the relationship between President Trump and Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, right now?
SCHENKER: Well, right now it's a little stressed. The prime minister, you know, has his own priorities. The president's priorities are getting the Straits of Hormuz open. And this has gone up and down over the years. There have been moments where the president's level of frustration with the prime minister has gone up. Last summer, the prime minister - Israel bombed Syria near the Ministry of Defense. Trump said, hey. You got to stop this. Don't destabilize Syria. Then, you know, in the fall, you had the - Israel target the Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar.
FADEL: Right.
SCHENKER: And the prime minister was forced by the president to make a humiliating scripted apology by phone to the prime minister of Qatar. So...
FADEL: Does it feel higher than usual - than we've seen before? I mean, Trump confirmed that he called Netanyahu, quote, "crazy" in the course of one phone call. We have seen the president get frustrated with Israel over its strikes in Lebanon that have threatened the ceasefire this time with Iran, but also in the last ceasefire that ultimately was extended. I mean, is it different in this moment?
SCHENKER: I'm not sure. I think that there's a greater sensitivity because of all the pressures on the president with the economy, with this war in Iran that has gone on so long. But I think the president also recognizes that Israel has the IRGC on its northern border and has refused thus far to accept a linkage between Hormuz and a ceasefire qua ceasefire in Lebanon. I think what he wants is a less-fire, a de-escalation, and drawing a red line around Dahieh and Beirut. And I think that's where we're probably going to end up.
FADEL: You know, the prime minister of Israel has made clear he wants to keep going in Iran. He sees this as an existential threat to Israel. He also wants to keep going in Lebanon, as the president really wants a deal and a way out of the war with Iran. So if the two leaders have different goals - these two allies have different goals - is a deal possible with Iran?
SCHENKER: A deal is possible with Iran. They're not going to get their maximalist demand on Lebanon. But, you know, I think at the end of the day, the president has one priority in terms of what he's got to get out of Iran, which is, you know, on the nuclear file, the highly enriched uranium out of the country and a deal on enrichment. The prime minister obviously is going to be frustrated with that. But - I think they can go forward with that, but it's going to take some time, I think, to get there.
FADEL: What kind of leverage does President Trump have to pressure Netanyahu to limit what the Israeli military does in this conflict, especially when there are promises made at the negotiating table?
SCHENKER: Listen. I think, you know, the U.S. is the indispensable ally for Israel. And I think, you know, that itself carries a lot of weight. Israel, you know, pays attention to what the United States says. But, you know, there's a traditional toolkit if Israel deliberately undermines U.S. interests - the threat of cutting off arms sales, the slow rolling of arms deliveries, diminished support in international fora like the U.N. But, you know, the arms sales - that's the nuclear option. And it's only ever been threatened once, which is in 1956, during the Suez crisis.
FADEL: You know, many voices on the left and a growing number on the right would like to see the U.S. severely limit or stop funding the Israeli military over the way it's prosecuted its wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran. If the president has this in mind, do you think it is likely he would explicitly threaten to cut Israel off in this way?
SCHENKER: Well, I don't think so. You know, Israel has already said they want to get off the $3.8 billion a year in U.S. military assistance. And he can move, you know, more quickly on that if he'd like. But that's only, as you know, a small portion of Israel's defense budget. I think it's $45 billion this year. But that's still a very big threat, though.
FADEL: David Schenker is a senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Thank you so much for your time and your insights.
SCHENKER: Hey, my pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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