The GOP midterm convention in Dallas will be more like a massive campaign rally than a traditional convention, political science researchers told KERA News.
UT Dallas political science professor and researcher Thomas Gray said the event won't look like what most folks see at traditional conventions.
"It's really unprecedented," Gray said. "That they're doing this unusual, seemingly kind of risky or innovative thing kind of implies that the Republican Party feels on the back foot, and that they maybe need to try to do something different than the usual to make up for the sort of disadvantage that they see in the polling."
The Republican National Committee and Dallas County GOP did not respond to requests for comment. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said in a statement published to the committee's website that it would be a "Trumpapolooza."
"President Trump will unite Republicans around our shared vision, build momentum, and deliver an incredible convention for our party," Gruters wrote in the statement.
It'll be the first time the Republican National Committee hosts a midterm election year convention, with the event slated to run on a compressed, two-day schedule Sept. 9 and Sept. 10 — half as long as the RNC in 2024 — at American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Traditionally, political parties' conventions last longer and center on delegates for the party officially nominating a presidential candidate.
That's not happening this year.
There will be no delegates and no votes confirming party nominees or party platform issues.
Cal Jillson, a political science researcher and professor at Southern Methodist University, said that makes a big difference.
"All you're left with really is a campaign rally that is intended to energize and get out the base, because the way this midterm election is developing is that there are dynamics in place that suggest the Democrats are going to have a very good year," Jillson said.
Gray said that the convention suggests Republican concern over poll findings in several races — including Texas races for senate and governor.
An Aug. 24 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 42% to 39% and Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 45% to 40%.
But the convention shouldn't be expected to work any miracles in polls after.
Typically, Gray said, presidential election year conventions see a small bump in the polls that lasts two or three weeks before dropping back down to pre-convention levels.
There could be a few reasons that happens, he said.
One of the more likely causes is that the excitement dies down over time. Conventions get voters fired up and may sway some who are undecided, but that excitement dies down over time.
Gray said that could be especially true this year because of the issues that seem to matter most to the majority of voters: The war in Iran and high prices for everything from groceries and gas to housing.
He said it will be hard for President Donald Trump's GOP to satisfy voter concerns over the war in Iran, especially with no solid end in sight.
And the economy has been a stumbling block for both parties since COVID. Gray said both Democrats and Republicans have been dodging the topic of prices since the pandemic — neither with particular success.
"Inflation is still stubbornly high," Gray said. "When the Democrats were in control of the White House, they were running away from that, and they couldn't get away from it fast enough and they lost. And now that the Republicans are in charge, they're also running away from the fact that you can't go out to eat in a restaurant, even a casual restaurant in Dallas, without spending $25."
Gray said those prices could also impact the convention itself. Higher costs for flights, gas, lodging and food could keep some away. For others, he said promises to lower costs could ring hollow against the reality experienced outside the convention.
The boost in polls usually comes as the party, in this case Republicans, take soundbites and talking points from a convention and use them to motivate voters.
Gray said that knife cuts both ways, though.
Many of the exact same soundbites can be repackaged by Democrats to motivate their own supporters to cast ballots, meaning polls could level out as candidates running on the left use those clips to highlight stances and policies opposed by Democratic voters.
"I imagine you could easily drop a thousand plus dollars to go to this thing and that's not going to make you feel great," Gray said.
Jillson, the political science researcher and professor at SMU, said he doubts Republicans will be able to address those topics in a way that satisfies voters.
"There is simply no way to convince voters not to think about the economic circumstances of the country and that of their own family," Jillson said. "If they're sitting around the kitchen table worrying about the electric bill, gas prices, those kinds of things, those are gut level issues. If they can't pay those bills, there's nothing you can tell them about how good the broader economy is."
He and Gray expect Trump, Vance and Republican nominees to talk about lowered prescription costs and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US.
The impacts of Trump's presence at the convention are also hard to predict, Jillson told KERA.
"It's hard to know how that will hit Americans because Donald Trump's job approval ratings are in the low 30s, which is very low for a president going into a midterm election, and the measurement of how people feel about the economy is still dropping," he said.
He and Gray both said Republicans are already at a disadvantage being the party in power during a midterm election — a time when the opposition party has frequently seen success in claiming governorships, state legislature offices and congressional seats.
When the convention is over, Jillson and Gray agree it may be hard to gauge its actual impact on the election.
That's in part because polls have been less reliable in recent years and Gray said the effects of the convention may not be clear until returns come in on election night.
James Hartley is the Fort Worth breaking news reporter and producer for KERA News. Got a tip? Email James Hartley at jhartley@kera.org.
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