AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Joining us now is NPR senior political correspondent Mara Liasson. Welcome.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Hi there.
RASCOE: So, you know, as you just heard, there's a lot we don't know about the shooting yesterday in Minneapolis. But what strikes you politically about this?
LIASSON: One thing that strikes me is how the Trump administration tries to get out immediately after these incidents with a narrative that may or may not be true. This happened with the shooting of Renee Macklin Good just a few weeks ago, when the administration said she carried out an act of domestic terrorism. Trump called her a professional agitator, accused Good of trying to run over the ICE agent who shot her, before there was an investigation or much evidence of this.
We're also seeing some pushback from Congress. Senate Democrats say they will not vote for the Department of Homeland Security's funding bill. And all this occurs at a time when Trump's approval ratings are dropping. Immigration has been the aspect of Trump's policies that was the most popular. Voters in general approve of his efforts to secure the Southern border and to deport undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
But new polls show that a majority of voters disapprove of ICE's tactics. Now, a New York Times poll taken right before the second fatal shooting shows that majorities of voters disapprove of the way ICE is doing its job. Only 36% of voters approve, and 61% said ICE had, quote, "gone too far." Now, this could have an impact on the midterm elections, even though Trump himself is not on the ballot.
RASCOE: I want to - you know, moving on another topic. I want to ask you about yet another tariff threat from President Trump. He's now saying he'll impose a hundred-percent tariff if Canada moves ahead with the trade deal with China. Is this fallout over Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's remarks at Davos last week?
LIASSON: It seems like it. Carney gave a very candid speech, laying out what he called a rupture in the world order. He encouraged middle countries like his and other NATO allies to work more independently, saying they can't rely on the U.S. anymore as a stabilizing force. That speech got a standing ovation. Donald Trump didn't like it at all, and then he threatened the 100% tariffs on Canada.
And the trade deal that Canada made with China - where they agreed to lower tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, China agreed to lower tariffs on some Canadian agriculture products - interestingly enough, Trump was for it. He seems to have reversed himself. When the deal was announced last week, he said it was a good thing. He said, it's what you should be doing. He said, quote, "if you can get a deal with China, you should do that." But then he changed his mind. He now is attacking Carney for being ungrateful. And the bottom line here is that Donald Trump is very unpredictable.
RASCOE: Well, and given that he reverses himself so much over tariffs, are these threats kind of losing their punch?
LIASSON: Well, they could be. He does have a pattern of blustering then backing down. This is something termed the TACO theory for Trump always chickens out. And some of these threats seem to be performative for Trump. At times, he sounds like he's in a "Godfather" movie. Take a listen to what he said during his speech at Davos where he tried to coerce Denmark and other U.S. allies to give the United States control of Greenland.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: They have a choice. You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and we will remember.
LIASSON: And I think it's apt that the term TACO came originated with Wall Street traders because the markets seem to be the last guardrails on Trump's behavior. When he threatened force to take Greenland, when he threatened to put tariffs on U.S. allies, the markets tumbled. Then when he backed off, the markets bounced back. But the bottom line again is, the whole - his behavior is so unpredictable, and it makes some sort of sense that other countries - even long-term US allies - are now looking to find their own path and make deals with other superpowers like China.
RASCOE: Well, what are some of the long-term implications of Trump's aggressive posture toward U.S. allies?
LIASSON: They could be profound. If the Western alliance permanently ruptures, the implications could be very big. Article 5 of NATO says, an attack on one member is an attack on all. All protect each other. But Donald Trump has called that into question, raising doubts about whether he would come to Europe's aid if it was invaded by Russia.
And the question hanging over Europe right now is, if the alliance does rupture, is it possible for Europe to rearm itself to make up for losing the U.S. as an ally? Does Europe have the means or the will to do this, to make up for the intelligence and the weapon systems and the nuclear umbrella that they get from the United States? Estimates are that it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and take decades.
So this is a big question. There really isn't an alternative to the Western alliance for European countries. And in the meantime, Russia is happy to see these divisions. Vladimir Putin has been trying to break the Western alliance for his entire life, and right now, he's watching it break apart possibly from the inside, so this is a big gift to Putin and a lot of uncertainty for European countries going forward.
RASCOE: That's NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Thank you, Mara.
LIASSON: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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