Ever since the Texas blackout in 2021 and the Austin winter outage in 2023, energy anxiety has been a fact of life for many in Central Texas. With freezing weather, ice and snow in the forecast, you might be wondering again if the power will stay on.
The answer depends on the performance of both statewide and local energy systems.
The state grid is on 'weather watch'
The Texas statewide power grid is the massive network of power plants and transmission lines that is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
This is the system that ran out of electricity during the 2021 freeze, causing one of the worst power failures in U.S. history.
This week, ERCOT has issued a “weather watch” from Monday until Thursday as freezing temperatures arrive.
The watch is basically the grid operator's way of recognizing that the cold will drive up electricity demand and could result in lower-than-usual energy reserves.
But, crucially, the grid operator says “grid conditions are expected to be normal during an ERCOT Weather Watch.”
That means the agency is not anticipating reserves to drop to a level where it would have to call for conservation, declare an energy emergency or enact rolling blackouts.
Still, power emergencies usually happen by surprise when power plants break down right as demand for energy spikes.
If you want to monitor the Texas grid in real time, you can see energy supply versus demand on the ERCOT website or download the ERCOT app.
The dashboard also has a map that shows the current price for energy in different parts of the state.
As Texans well know, electricity prices can spike in extreme weather conditions. But, experts say, the map reveals more than just the cost of energy.
“The price maps will be useful in seeing where new transmission would be helpful during peak winter events, and will also be an indicator of power plants having tripped off line, if they do,” Joshua Rhodes a research scientist at UT Austin, said.
The website Grid Status is another good place to monitor ERCOT and other regional grids, with plenty of interesting information on the power mix and historical data on the power supply.
'All hands on deck' at Austin Energy as storm approaches
Most power outages people experience are not the result of grid-wide failures, but problems with the local electric distribution systems.
In February 2023, Austin had a massive local blackout during an ice storm that knocked trees and tree branches onto power lines.
About a half a million people lost power at some point during the freeze, many of them went without it for days.
This week there is the potential for more local outages as winter weather enters the region, though the magnitude of the risk depends on what kind of precipitation we get and how strong the winds are.
“We're very much in a wait and see mode,” said Matt Mitchell, a public information officer for Austin Energy.
Freezing rain poses a greater outage threat than snow because ice can accumulate and add more weight to tree limbs and power lines, he said.
“In 2023 the forecast was for an eighth of an inch or maybe a quarter of an inch of ice just in our northwest service territory,” Mitchell said. “Sure enough, we got a lot different than that. So we're operating as though this is an all hands on deck situation.”
After that 2023 outage, a city audit came out showing that Austin Energy was not meeting utility industry standards for clearing tree branches around power lines.
The utility has made some progress since then but still has a way to go to meet a goal of clearing all 305 of its electric circuits. Circuits are the local transmission lines that bring power from substations and power generators to smaller lines for homes and businesses.
“We've got 120 circuits that have been trimmed to standard so far,” Mitchell said. “Forty-four more circuits are planned for this fiscal year.”
Mitchell said the utility has focused tree-trimming efforts along circuits that are more prone to outages to make sure that tree trimming has the biggest impact.
“As much as it's important to focus on vegetation management as a whole, the targeting of underperforming circuits [is] just as important,” he said. “Because we know the susceptibility of those customers to be impacted more severely.”
If you do lose power you can call 311 to report the outage, assuming you have phone service.
You can also visit the Austin Energy outage map online to see estimated time for repairs and how many people are affected.
It’s worth noting that utilities typically report outages in terms of the “customers” affected.
A customer, in this sense, is a metered home or business. Analysts typically estimate that an average of 2.5 people receive electricity from each electric meter.
So, if you see there are 100 customers without power that actually means there are closer to 250 people without power.
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