AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
One of the most brutal regimes in the world has fallen. Opposition forces took control today of the Syrian capital, Damascus, after a civil war that lasted more than 13 years against President Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian military has also retreated, beaten back by a surprisingly effective offensive that began less than two weeks ago. The civil war there is one of the deadliest conflicts in the 21st century with more than half a million people killed, many of them civilians. Joining us in studio is Qutaiba Idlbi. He's a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council and leads the council efforts on Syria. Welcome to the program.
QUTAIBA IDLBI: Thanks so much.
RASCOE: So you were actually imprisoned twice and tortured by President Assad's regime. What's your reaction to the news that his government has collapsed?
IDLBI: So far, still in an unbelievable moment - I think whether as a Syrian or as an analyst, I was totally taken by the events on the ground. I'm surprised that the regime totally collapsed, especially in the capital, Damascus. As you know, the fight was merely around the city of Homs, Syria's third-largest city. But our expectations was that the regime was really preparing for a big battle in Damascus, especially following the 13 years long of the war itself. So yeah, I was completely taken away by what happened. But also, I think I have - as a Syrian, I have a lot of hope for the Syrian people for what would come next. There are a lot of unexpected - a lot of, you know, unknowns in what's going to happen next.
RASCOE: Well, and this civil war had been going on since 2011. And in...
IDLBI: Yeah.
RASCOE: ...Recent years, it looked like a stalemate. So how did this happen so quickly? Like, how did opposition forces turn it around in less than two weeks?
IDLBI: I think they realized, one, the weaknesses that the regime had for the last four years with the absence of real support from Russia when Russia is bogged down in Ukraine but also in the light of the weakening of Iran following the war in Lebanon. I think those two conditions meant, for the Assad regime, that Russia is very busy to send its airplanes, its captain or officer class to help the Assad regime leading military operations but also meant that Iran is not there to send enforcements when the regime really need it. I think even the rebels themselves were surprised by the complete collapse of the regime. Their initial goal was just the city of Aleppo. But as they saw how the regime is weak, then the goal became immediately Damascus.
RASCOE: And is this really - you know, how central was the fact that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and clearly focused on Ukraine? It's been a longtime ally of Assad. How central was that to the fall of Syria's military forces?
IDLBI: It was definitely very important. Let's remember that the Assad regime army was completely dismantled in the first years of the war between 2011 and 2015. When Russia intervened, for the first six months between September 2015 and March 2016, they were not really able to change the reality on the ground because the army was completely collapsed. So they established this paramilitary force that was fighting completely under Russian Air Force protection and alongside Russian soldiers.
So in a sense, you know, years after, when the Russians are not there, this force found itself by itself. Without air protection, they completely collapsed. They abandoned, basically, front lines. And that's why the regime became completely exposed in matter of days.
RASCOE: So President Assad forcefully crushed dissent. But did that approach actually cause support for his regime to collapse once the rebels gained the upper hand?
IDLBI: Absolutely. But I think also more importantly, the rebels', you know, military act on the ground - how they dealt with minority communities, how they avoided civilian casualties - have really encouraged a lot of people to really make that step and defect from the regime. We've seen it with Christian communities in Aleppo - how the rebels have really welcomed Christian communities, protected them, but also in the messaging that came from the rebels, specifically to Shia Isma'ili and Alawite Shia communities in central Syria. I think that have really helped, you know, strip Assad away from the communities that have supported them for long. And Assad eventually found himself alone in Damascus.
RASCOE: You know, ultimately, you know, officials inside and outside of Syria have urged a peaceful transfer of power. Often when you have one dictator fall, there is this period of time where you don't know what is going to come next. What are you thinking about worst-case and best-case scenarios here?
IDLBI: I think best-case scenario, the rebels, the Syrian Democratic forces and other actors on the ground come together in a national agreement to form a transitional governing body. I think worst-case scenario is the reemergence of ISIS, fighting within the rebels that no one of the Syrian people really want at this time.
RASCOE: That's Qutaiba Idlbi, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
IDLBI: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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