MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
A week from now, voters will elect a new president. They will also decide who controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The new president, whether it's Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump - they will need allies on Capitol Hill. NPR congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh joins me here in the studio to talk about what is at stake. Hey, Deirdre.
DEIRDRE WALSH, BYLINE: Hey - great to be with you.
KELLY: Start big picture. Are we expecting major shifts in power on Capitol Hill?
WALSH: Well, as you know, the margins on the Hill in both chambers are super-skinny. Democrats have a two-seat Senate majority. Republicans in the House have a four-seat majority. So just a small number of contests are really going to decide which party controls both of these chambers. But that has major implications for the kinds of issues party leaders are going to move in terms of votes. Republican and Democratic leaders are planning very different agendas and have very different approaches on issues that have real-life impacts on people's lives...
KELLY: Yeah.
WALSH: ...In terms of taxes, immigration, health care. And, you know, if we end up with divided government like we've just had, the next president could face a major check from Congress on their power and may have to look at executive orders, which is a much more limiting way to govern.
KELLY: Sure. OK, so let's take this one at a time, chamber by chamber, Senate first. What does it look like? What might happen there?
WALSH: It's a very tough map this year for Democrats. And right now, Republicans appear to have the edge to pick up enough seats to win control. They're expected to win a seat in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin's retiring, and are in good shape in Montana, where it's a solidly red state, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester has been trailing his Republican challenger. Democrats are just defending more seats in purple states than Republicans are.
KELLY: You're describing what sounds like a pretty plausible path for Republicans to take control of the Senate. If - and it's if - but if that is what happens, what are they going to do with it?
WALSH: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's agenda is the Senate Republican agenda. If he wins, border security is front and center. Senate Republicans are also looking to move a major tax bill. Trump's tax cuts from 2017 expire at the end of 2025. He wants to lower the corporate tax rate and renew a lot of the other tax breaks that are expiring. In terms of the economy, there is one issue that's complicated for Senate Republicans, and that's Trump's tariffs. Not all of them support them, but Trump has also said he could move on those alone and without Congress.
Another major issue is there could be Supreme Court vacancies, with a couple of the current conservative justices expected to retire if Trump wins. A Republican Senate would have the votes to preserve and keep a conservative majority on the high court and install more Trump judges on the federal bench.
KELLY: Although how big a twist would it insert if Republicans win the Senate but Kamala Harris wins the White House?
WALSH: I mean, most immediately, Harris would face real difficulty getting the Senate to confirm her Cabinet nominees. They would need bipartisan support. You would have key players - moderate Republicans like Maine's Susan Collins, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski - could really be key in that scenario, and they could be key players on other issues like tax and immigration policies. If Democrats do manage to keep their Senate majority, they have promised to focus on things that Harris has, like housing, the child tax credit and adding tax increases on wealthier Americans.
KELLY: OK, let's mosey over to the House side, which, of course, Republicans currently control. Are they likely to keep control?
WALSH: I mean, it is going to be a coin flip. It is really tight. House Speaker Mike Johnson has been really confident campaigning across the country. He said he expects full Republican control. He's already coordinating plans for the agenda with former President Trump.
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MIKE JOHNSON: So we've been preparing. Not to put the cart before the horse, but we've prepared to lead. We're going to have a very aggressive first 100 days agenda for the Congress. As I told President Trump, I said, Mr. President, you could be the most consequential president of the modern era because we have to fix almost everything.
WALSH: He's promising a vote immediately on border security. Also, votes on taxes would come next and changes to federal regulations.
KELLY: OK. We have about 30 seconds left, Deirdre. You said it is close. What are House Democratic leaders planning to do if they regain control?
WALSH: It is a very different list of policy priorities. If Democrats win the House, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be positioned to be the first Black speaker of the House. I've spent some time on the trail with him in a couple of places, and he's vowed to bring up a federal bill to protect voting rights. He's also saying that they will move a bill to protect reproductive freedom. And he's also talking about housing costs as a top issue.
KELLY: Okie-dokie. NPR's Deirdre Walsh. Thank you.
WALSH: Thanks, Mary Louise. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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